By Randal Edgar
Journal State House Bureau

PROVIDENCE, R.I. -- The recovery is still fragile, but income growth and job growth are among the factors that that show Rhode Island's economy is on the upswing, two economists told a team of state fiscal experts Friday.

The economists from Moody's Analytics said the state's recovery should continue through 2013 and 2014 and bring the state back to its pre-recession unemployment figures sometime during 2015.

"Rhode Island's recovery will lag behind that of the United States, and even will lag behind that of New England," said Andres Carbacho-Burgos, a senior economist at Moody's. "What has changed of course is that we are more optimistic now that Rhode Island is definitely embarking on a recovery."

The presentation came on the third day of what is known as the spring Revenue and Caseload Estimating Conference, at which the state's fiscal experts gather information on the economy, welfare programs and revenues to come up with projections that will be incorporated into next year's state budget.

The conference continues Friday afternoon with a review of human services caseloads and
again on Monday with a review of the latest state revenue figures.