PROVIDENCE, R.I. -- With overall state revenue collections lagging estimates by $13.8 million last month, House fiscal adviser Michael O'Keefe has put legislative leaders on notice: "The trend in not a positive one.''

"Both tax revenues and total revenues show a declining trend from estimates,'' he advised legislative leaders in his monthly report. "Total revenues have gone from $31.3 million ahead of estimates in November ... to $13.8 million behind through March.''

While some receipts are up over 2008 and the state's critical income tax collections are "somewhat unstable at this point in the year,'' O'Keefe said, "Personal income tax withholding payments and sales tax collections are fairly reliable indicators of economic activity since they are collected monthly [and] both are behind the estimates.''

"This is the second month the revenues have been below the November revised estimates,'' he wrote.

In November, the state's official revenue-estimators lowered their projections for the year by $233.6 million to $3.113 billion. This represented the amount the state expected to collect from its own sources of revenue, including taxes, fees and Lottery receipts. The latest O'Keefe report indicates the situation has deteriorated since.

The revenue-estimators -- who include the three top Carcieri administration and legislative budget advisers -- are scheduled to meet again in May. Their findings will determine how much more -- or less -- the state has available to spend in the next budget year that begins on July 1 than Republican Governor Carcieri proposed in January, and whether the current-year budget repair bill passed last week went far enough to avert a major deficit this year.