Poll: Caprio, Lynch have edge in 4-way governor's race
10:41 AM Mon, Mar 02, 2009 | Permalink
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By Katherine Gregg PROVIDENCE -- In a four way Democratic Party primary race for governor in 2010, General Treasurer Frank Caprio and Attorney General Patrick Lynch would have an edge, according to a new public-opinion survey made public today by veteran pollster Victor Profughi. Out of 400 randomly selected voters contacted Feb. 24-25, he found 54.4 percent saying they were anywhere from "somewhat'' to "very likely'' to vote for Caprio, 50.1 percent inclined for vote for Lynch, 37.6 percent leaning towards Providence Mayor David Cicilline, and 35.7 percent for Lt. Gov. Elizabeth Roberts. Profughi did not ask direct horse race questions. Nor did he ask questions about the potential impact on the race if former U.S. Sen. Lincoln Chafee ran as an independent. But he did ask: "If you had to chose a Democrat, would you be more likely to vote for ... Frank Caprio, David Cicilline, Patrick Lynch.'' The results: Caprio netted 30 percent, Lynch 17.4 percent, Cicilline 13 percent and Roberts 12.4 percent. Another 11.3 percent said they would not vote for a Democrat, and 15.8 percent said at this point, they do not know. On the Republican side, 16.3 percent said they were leaning toward state Rep. Joseph Trillo, and 33 percent towards former Cranston mayor and unsuccessful 2006 U.S. Senate candidate Steve Laffey. If they "had to choose a Republican,'' Laffey lead with 29.3 percent over Trillo's 6.9 percent, while a majority said they did not know (26.2 percent) or would not vote Republican (37.6 percent). Profughi said his poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent. 
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"If you had to vote for a Democrat", in this state at least, is equivalent to asking how are you going to vote. Caprio leads by about 2 to 1 is the way I read it.
Laffey or Chaffee would change everything. Chaffee would breeze to a win I think.
On the Democratic side:
Lynch, with the lead paint stupidity and his general dull and peevish way, stands no chance of election although his name recognition will outpoll Roberts and Ciccilini. Caprio has planned well and seems to have an idea or two without having to check for party approval.
My money:
Chaffee: 54%
caprio: 45
democratic primary:
caprio 42
lynch 33
roberts13
ciccili11
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