Projo Politics Blog

Political junkies often treat elections as horse races, and the great hope for Democratic activists in 2008 is a thoroughbred named Turnout. Their dream come true would be for Turnout to win a trifecta -- young people, unmarried women and Hispanics.

Anna Greenberg, of the Democratic pollster Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, sees all three groups breaking Barack Obama's way in November. Needless to say, the data-hungry journalists hearing out Greenberg at the Denver Grand Hyatt this morning were all ears.

Greenberg noted that the participation of young people (under 30) doubled in the 2008 primaries/caucuses from that in 2004, with overwhelming support going to Obama. (Of course, participation increased for most groups, if less dramatically.)

President Bush had a relationship with Hispanic voters that was unusually strong for a Republican presidential candidate. In 2004, he received 44 percent of their vote, versus 55 percent for Democrat John Kerry. Greenberg noted that the Hispanic voting trend returned to a marked preference for the Democrats in 2006, when 69 percent of Hispanic voters preferred Democrats, while only 29 percent backed Republicans.

Unmarried women, about a quarter of the electorate, have been voting in higher proportions and for Democrats by large majorities. And between 2002 and 2006, voting by unmarried Hispanic women - historically a low-participation group -- rose an enormous 34 percent. That was especially interesting in a non-presidential-election year, when turnout is always much lower.

The danger for Turnout, Greenberg adds, is that he would run into problems at the polls. The young, the unmarried and Hispanics are the most likely to be "discouraged" by long lines and malfunctioning voting machines. "Here are the people who are least likely to handle chaos," she said.

 Tags  Democratic Convention voter turnout

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